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Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Nagaland, Tripura and Sikkim comprise India’s North Eastern Region (NER), which has a geographical area of 2,55,083 sq. kms and a population of 3,84,95,089 (2001 Census). Thus the NER constitutes nearly 7.76 per cent of the total land area of India and houses roughly 3.75 per cent of India’s total population. About 70 per cent of the region is hilly. NER is connected with the rest of India through a narrow corridor in North Bengal, having an approximate width of 32 kms on the eastern side and 21 kms on the western side. This corridor is popularly known as “Siliguri Neck” or the “Chicken Neck”. NER shares only 2 per cent of its border with the mainland of the country and the rest 98 per cent forms India’s international border. This is of strategic importance for India.
The NER has vast resources, numerous and varied flora and fauna, but does not have the right environment for utilization of its resources and potential. Apart from geographical isolation, it is deficient in economic infrastructure of roads, railways, power supply, irrigation and communication. The recurring socio-political unrests have further hampered the climate for developmental activities.
Efficient utilisation of resource endowments, particularly commercial crops, holds out promise for transforming the NER.
Rubber Cultivation
Being one of the fastest growing consumer markets for natural rubber, India will end up being a major importer of the commodity if domestic production of rubber is not increased. At present, rubber imports is around 45,000 tonnes per annum and with the kind of explosion in the automobile industry that is occurring in India, the country's import dependence on rubber would soon escalate.
With limits to the growth of rubber in traditional areas in the hinterlands of the south-west coast comprising Kerala and the adjoining Kanyakumari district of Tamil Nadu, the Rubber Board should actively take up the cultivation of the commercial crop on a larger scale in non-traditional areas. Non-traditional areas so far identified as almost fully or marginally suitable for rubber cultivation are Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, lower reaches of hills of Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura.
Rubber trees require deep & well drained soil of lateritic type. It also requires humid, equable climate (21 to 35°C) and fairly well distributed annual rainfall of 200 cm for optimum growth. Although the North Eastern Region lies far outside the traditional rubber growing zone, the agro-climatic conditions obtained here are unique in as much as near tropical features are experienced in most parts owing to low elevations, exposure to monsoons and other moderating influences.
In its effort to find suitable perennial cash crops of non-perishable nature for growing on the hill slopes which are unsuitable for permanent agricultural use, but too good to be put under forest, the Soil Conservation Department tried rubber cultivation in the late 50s. Due to the positive results obtained from trial plantations undertaken in early 1960s in the then undivided Assam (in some selected centres in Mikir and Garo Hills) and Tripura, commercial scale plantations were raised by GovernmentForest and Soil Conservation Departments. Public Sector Corporations set up later joined rubber planting endeavours on extensive scales. Thus while in Assam and Tripura, Public Sector Corporations are leading in the rubber plantation sector, in Meghalaya, Manipur, Mizoram and Arunachal Pradesh the role has been played by the StateForest and Soil Conservation Departments. Individual growers are also contributing to fast growth of rubber cultivation in this region.
Rubber has been identified as one of the thrust areas in Tripura, in view of its suitability to the terrain and the acceptability amongst the people. Studies have shown that about 100,000 hectares of area in the state can be brought under rubber plantation. The area under rubber cultivation at present is estimated to be about 26,500 hectares, which is the second largest, after Kerala. The yield per hectare and the quality of rubber are also comparable to Kerala's plantations. In fact, Tripura is now considered the "Second Rubber Capital of India" by the Rubber Board.
Nine per cent of the country's rubber production comes from the North-East India and above 82 per cent from Kerala, where the limits of area expansion have been reached and further expansion has to come from productivity enhancement.
Benefits: Rubber has huge potential to transform the region economically by generating employment and earning revenue. The availability of good quantity of high quality rubber offers ample scope for setting up of rubber-based industries. Moreover, rubber cultivation, which has already attracted large-scale participation of tribal population, is proving to be an effective means of weaning away the ‘jhum’ cultivation. The abandoned jhum/degraded land can be put to productive use. Rubber plantation is also environment-friendly.
Rubber is a major thrust area for the geographical belt in the 11th Plan (2007-12). With immense possibilities to increase the area under rubber in Tripura and Assam, the States could also benefit greatly from setting up downstream (processing) industries.
Extent of Rubber Cultivation & Production of Raw or Crude Rubber in theNorth East (1996-1997):
StateExtent under Rubber (Ha)Production (in ’000 kgs)
1. Arunachal Pradesh101.0018.000
2. Assam10,179.00507.000
3. Manipur1,400.00112.000
4. Meghalaya4,105.00106.000
5. Mizoram913.0018.000
6. Nagaland1,523.0017.000
7. Tripura20,761.003,350.000
Total38,982.004,128.000
Source: Rubber Board, Guwahati
Potential: The Minister of State for Commerce, Mr Jairam Ramesh said a study by theRubber Research Institute of India (RRII) citing an earlier study by the Rubber Board put the total potential area available for rubber cultivation in the North East at about 5,00,000 hectares including 50,000 ha in northern West Bengal. This is a considerably large area, given the fact that at present the total area under rubber in the country is only a little less than 600,000 ha. Out of the five lakh ha of potential area as rubber-worthy in the North-East, only one lakh ha is in Tripura and based on the latest statistics, 31.2 per cent of the potential area available in Tripura had already been brought under rubber cultivation. In the rest of North-East, only six per cent of the potential area has been cultivated so far. In Assam, where 200,000 ha is rubber worthy, just 7 per cent of the potential area has been brought under cultivation.
Mr Ramesh said the presence of suitable land in such large tracts and other natural factors such as good rainfall and abundant sunlight and manpower at an affordable cost meant that these favourable factors would hold the potential to put rubber cultivation in the North -East at a definite competitive cost advantage.
Problems:The RRII study said non-availability of agricultural chemicals and fertilisers remain a major problem in this part and lack of availability of skilled tapers and periodic monitoring of quality of tapping are the constraints. Besides, marketing of rubber is also a tough task in the North-East. Hence organising rubber growers into local self-help groups such as rubber producers' societies and empowering them with knowledge and technical and material support would help in tackling the constraints.
Officials in the Ministry as also in the Board said close to 32 to 60 per cent of the entire new rubber planting that has been taking place in the country between 2002-05 was exclusively in the North-East. They said the Board implemented a project for accelerated development of rubber plantation between 1984-85 and 1989-90 and against the target for planting of 24,000 ha, as much as 23,155 ha was actually achieved. This was followed by a comprehensive scheme for rubber plantation development in the North East with a total financial outlay of Rs 84 crore for the Tenth Plan (2002-07). Under this project, new planting and replanting, integrated village level rubber development, quality upgradation and demonstration of agro-management practices were undertaken.
There are six rubber nurseries in the North Eastern Region (1997): three in Assam (Cachar, Goalpara and Karbi Anglong), two in Meghalaya (East Garo Hills and West Garo Hills) and one in West Tripura. Regional Research Stations of Rubber Board have been set up in Agartala (Tripura) in 1979, Guwahati (Assam) in 1985, Tura (West Garo hills of Meghalaya) in 1985 and Kolasib (Mizoram) in 1985.
Since rubber is a relatively new crop in the region, strong extension support is required by the farmers to help them adopt scientific agro-management practices. The Rubber Board has been providing training to farmers, distributing estate inputs and cover crops, giving financial assistance for boundary protection, establishing group processing centers, supplying rubber rollers, rubber sheeting rollers free of cost, etc.
Traditionally coffee was confined to Karnataka, Kerala and Tamil Nadu, but gradually spread to Andhra and Orissa. Envisaging coffee demand to reach around 2 lakh tonnes by 2000 AD, the National Commission on Agriculture (NCA) pointed out the need to expand coffee to non-traditional areas through public sector undertakings. It was suggested that for achieving the target, an additional area of about 72,000 ha would have to be brought under coffee cultivation in non-traditional areas in Andhra Pradesh, Orissa , Assam , Tripura etc.
Following these recommendations the Coffee Board, in collaboration with the National Council of Applied Economic Research, New Delhi , prepared a document entitled “The prospective plan for Coffee Development 2000 AD”. The plan envisaged the need to increase production to 2 lakh tonnes by that time to meet external and internal demand by (a) increasing productivity of small grower sectors and low yielding pockets in large grower sectors and (b) by expansion of coffee in non-traditional as well as in traditional states.
Coffee was reported to have been introduced in Cachar district of Assam during 1853. It was known to have been cultivated in parts of Mizoram and Cherapunjee area of Meghalaya in 1870. Hundred tonnes of coffee were marketed in the late 19th and early 20th century in Shillong. But after 1930, except for small kitchen garden type plantation in the tea-estates, the cultivation gradually died down. Coffee gardens were successfully established by Soil Conservation departments of Meghalaya at Umling (Ri-Bhoi District), Lumshnung (Jaintia Hills District) and Tura (West Garo Hills District) and in Assam at Haflong (N.C.Hills District) and in some pockets of Nagaland as early as 1954 on pilot cum trial basis as a measure to prevent ‘jhuming’ and consequent soil erosion. These trial plantations in this region, were laid out in different elevations from 100 meters to 1000 meters, temperature variations from 12° C in winter to 33° C in summer, soil from deep red forest to sandy clayey loam and rainfall from 1900 mm to 4000 mm with dry period between November to March.
It is worth mentioning that most of the additional coffee plantation area in non-traditional areas was estimated in the North Eastern Region. Encouraged by the success of pilot studies, Coffee Board proposed a perspective plan for North East during 1970’s in association with National Council for Agricultural and Economic Research (NCEAR) and assisted by North Eastern Council (NEC), surveyed the areas and identified 44,000 ha as potential areas for coffee cultivaton, comprising 16,000 ha in Assam, 8,000 ha in Meghalaya and 4,000 ha each in Manipur, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. These 44,000 ha areas are spread over in 322 Villages in 39 Districts of this region. All the agro-climatic conditions prevailing in the North East are suitable for commercial cultivation of coffee. Only about 5,000-10,000 tonnes of coffee are produced in the North-East, largely in Mizoram and Nagaland.
Coffee is a new enterprise in these areas and therefore adequate technical support is needed to make the venture successful. To meet challenges in this regard, the Coffee Board has set up its regional office in Guwahati and many extension centres manned by trained officers in all the important coffee growing areas of the North Eastern Region. A training programme for field level workers was undertaken in Haflong, apart from the training of officers at the Central Coffee Research Institute to undertake managerial responsibilities. The Coffee Board, apart from other activities, has started Coffee Demonstration Farms in Assam , Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland and Manipur. The North Eastern Council provides ‘balancing facilities’ such as raising of coffee and shade tree nurseries in all the states, surveys land suitable for coffee cultivation in North Eastern Region.
Coffee is a labour-intensive crop, requiring 2.5 person per hectare for its maintenance. Cultivation of coffee is all the more attractive since it is one of the horticultural crops where the produce does not perish and on-farm processing is easy. Moreover, it is a low input, high return per unit area crop, providing an economic viability to jhumias who are so far used to only subsistence level of livelihood. Cultivation of coffee in the hill areas of the region should help tribal people inhabiting the areas in getting gainful employment; to certain extent, prevent soil erosion and bring about afforestation, thus improving the ecology of the North Eastern Region and the socio-economic condition of the people.
Other Crops
Spices hold immense potential, particularly organic ginger, chilly and black pepper, both for expansion of production and marketing.
Sikkim , Nagaland and Meghalaya have the potential for undertaking cultivation, processing and marketing of cardamom, naga chillies, ginger and turmeric.
In the export of tea, the share of the North-East is lower, as South India accounts for over 50 per cent of Indian tea, though the former accounts for 55 per cent of the country's tea production. In 2006, there was a breakthrough in that over 2 million kg of tea from Assam was exported to Pakistan .
The four Agri Export Zones in the North-East, prioritised on the basis of their potential and stage of implementation, include pineapples (Tripura), ginger ( Sikkim ), orchids and cherry pepper ( Sikkim ) and fresh and processed ginger ( Assam ).
Cash crops means cash income. As a viable alternative to shifting cultivation, cash crops can help in weaning away jhumming and settling down the jhummias to a profit-yielding production in the hills where they belong. These plantations can provide various subsidiary employment opportunities. Moreover, by siphoning off workers disguisedly employed in the agricultural sector to these plantations and allied ventures, there will be gainful employment. Plantations improve ecology and prevent soil erosion as well.
The UNDP Human Development Report has signaled repeated warnings against the negative consequences of the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS), particularly on food security, indigenous knowledge, bio-safety and access to vital medicines and health care. The wave of economic and corporate restructurings undertaken in response to an increasingly competitive global market, the widespread dismantling of social security systems and decline of standards in social services all have resulted in unemployment, work insecurity, evictions and homelessness, landlessness, lost livelihoods, harm to health and worsening labor conditions. These conditions lead to violations of core economic and social rights obligations of State for which our policy makers bear civil responsibility.
http://www.hicnet.org/articles.php?pid=1905
IMF QUOTA and Developing Nations
As acknowledged in the recent G-20 Summit at Pittsburgh, it had been the emerging economies which had been instrumental in lifting the developed nations from the abyss of depression. Also acknowledged in the Summit had been the reality that the changed situation requires a global economic restructuring which, in the light of the strong growth in dynamic emerging markets, will correct imbalances that now prevail in favour of developed nations.
The immediate outcome had been the landmark decision at the G-20 Summit to increase the share of IMF quotas of developing countries by five per cent. India, China and Brazil had wanted a seven per cent increase so that developing nations would have wielded control over that body through having 51 per cent of quotas, but vehement opposition by European nations such as Belgium and Holland had resulted in a compromise. Yet the increase in every way reflects the relative weights of IMF members in the world economy, which have changed substantially in view of the growth in emerging markets. India played a leading role in wresting the concessions from the affluent countries. This indicates her growing confidence as an international player.
"Education is not a way to escape poverty — it is a way of fighting it.''
—Julius Nyerere, former President of the United Republic of Tanzania
—
Education and Inequality
Education has emerged as an important factor underlying inequality. It is true that highly educated workers earn more than persons with basic education and the difference has grown particularly over the 1980s. There are both economic and social advantages to achieving higher levels of education, both for individuals and society. But the growth of inequality cannot be reduced to this sole factor, i.e. education. The argument that employers’ demands for skills were bidding up the wage rate to those with more education was arguably true (other factors were involved here) over the 1980s and 1990s, but not after 2000.
While increased skill (education) demands were certainly one force in play, other factors were also driving up the wage gap:
The real value of minimum wages fell steeply over the 1980s and less educated workers are more likely to earn the minimum wage.
Growing trade deficits and globalization also led to the loss of high-quality jobs for non-college-educated workers, putting downward pressure on wages among similarly skilled workers.
Union representation has been declining, which is another important reason for greater inequality.
Finally, unemployment was high, on average, over the years when the wage rate for skilled workers grew most quickly. When unemployment fell sharply in the latter 1990s, the growth of the wage gap slowed, suggesting that the absence of full employment, and the diminished bargaining power associated with slack labour markets, is another factor that must not be overlooked.
In other words, wage inequality is driven by a number of factors, of which differences in education is but one. More recently, in the 2000s, there is no evidence of increasing skill demands, or at least no evidence that these demands are not being met by enough skilled workers. Instead, in recent years, it appears the inequality has largely been driven by increased concentration of income and wealth at the very top of the scale.
In fact, research shows that half of the growth in wage inequality over the 1980s, and most of the growth in the 2000s, occurred within education groups, meaning that growth of inequality is currently being driven by the gains of some educated workers relative to others with the same education credentials.
Policy makers and analysts must avoid reducing the inequality debate to a sole explanation regarding education. Education is an obvious and important area but it is not solely responsible for the growth of inequality, not over the longer term, and especially not in recent years. Thus, other policies like minimum wages, a level playing field for union organizing, health care and pension provision, work supports for low-income workers, full employment, and responding to the downsides of globalization also need to be pursued.
Education and Poverty
Poverty is much more complex than simply lack of income. Poverty entails–
Lack of empowerment
Lack of knowledge
Lack of opportunity
Lack of income and capital
Despite increased access to education in recent times, the poor (among them the poor women disproportionately being high), socially disadvantageous groups, the physically disabled, persons in remote regions - are often deprived of a basic education. And when basic education is available, the poorest are unable to avail of it because the direct and opportunity costs attached to it are quite high for them.
Poverty is thus both a cause and an effect of insufficient access to or completion of quality education.
Children of poor families are less likely to enroll in and complete schooling because of the associated costs of attending school even when it is provided "free''. The cost of uniforms, supplies and transportation are well beyond the means of a poor family, especially when the family has several children of school age. This means that choices have to be made, and the choice is often to drop out of school or, worse yet, to deny schooling to girls while enrolling the boys thereby contributing directly to maintaining the inferior status of women. And as poor children who are enrolled grow older, the opportunity cost (their lost labour and the forgone income it may entail) becomes greater, thus increasing the likelihood of abandoning school.
Furthermore, dropping out of school because of poverty virtually guarantees perpetuation of the poverty cycle since the income-earning potential of the child is reduced, not to mention overall productivity, receptivity to change, and capacity to improve quality of life. Lack of education perpetuates poverty, and poverty constrains access to schooling.
The relationship between education and poverty reduction is thus quite straight and linear as education is empowering; it enables the person to participate in the development process; it inculcates the knowledge and skills needed to improve the income earning potential and in turn the quality of life. Moreover, education of girls and women helps in improving the number of other indicators of human development.
Eliminating poverty requires providing access to quality education. Education thus helps to lay the foundation for the following pillars of poverty reduction: empowerment, human development, social development and good governance.
Education transforms the vicious cycle of high birth rates, high maternal and infant mortality and endemic poverty into a virtuous circle through investment in human capital-enhancing labour productivity, reducing fertility and mortality, raising economic growth and thus securing domestic resources for further investments in people.
Education is a powerful tool for introducing members of a society to the system of government and the concept of governance. Educated persons are more likely to vote and participate in local and national government. They are more likely to demand better and more accountable government, thus creating demand for improved governance. Education is linked to empowerment, and a major manifestation of empowerment is the demand for better governance.
The continuing challenge for education is to ensure that all people have the knowledge and skills necessary for continuing human and economic development and for breaking the poverty cycle. The linear relationship between education, poverty and empowerment is, however, governed by the circumstances of a country and within a country in a particular region. Education, thus, influences and is influenced by the context in which it is developed. This synergistic relationship implies that education must be in a constant state of change as it responds to changing social and economic needs and that education in itself is a force for social and economic change as people become more empowered and more productive.
Education might be furthering inequalities and hence poverty if equitable distribution of the benefits of economic growth among people is not achieved. This requires pro-people policies, especially in a region where the benefits are limited to a small minority of educated urban populations. As Amartya Sen says in an essay titled ‘How Does Basic Education Influence Human Security', "When people are illiterate, their ability to understand and invoke their legal rights can be very limited. This can be a very significant barrier to make use even of the rather limited rights that they do actually have."
Acknowledgment: K. VENKATASUBRAMANIAN, Member, Planning Commission, The Hindu, December 04, 2001
INDIA'S LOOK-EAST POLICY AND ITS IMPACT ON NORTH EASTERN REGION OF INDIA
The Look-East policy is being pursued aggressively and has started yielding results on the economic and political fields. This policy which was primarily directed towards improving relations with ASEAN will now be enlarged to cover other nations of the region such as China, Japan and Korea to facilitate more political and economic integration.
The Look-East policy was launched in 1992 just after the end of the cold war, following the collapse of the Soviet Union. After the start of liberalization, it was a very strategic foreign policy decision taken by the Government of India.
The policy was given an initial thrust with the then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao visiting China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and Singapore and India becoming an important dialogue partner with ASEAN (Association of South Asian Nations) in 1992. Since the beginning of this century, India has given a big push to this policy by becoming a summit level partner of ASEAN (2002) and getting involved in some regional initiatives such as the BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, China) and the Ganga Mekong Cooperation and a member of the East Asia Summit (EAS) in December, 2005.
India – ASEAN
India's interaction with ASEAN in the cold war era was very limited. India declined to get associated with ASEAN in the 1960s when full membership was offered even before the grouping was formed.
It is only with the formulation of the Look-East policy in the last decade (1992), India had started giving this region due importance in the foreign policy. India became a sectoral dialogue partner with ASEAN in 1992, a full dialogue partner in 1995, a member of the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) in 1996, and a summit level partner (on par with China, Japan and Korea) in 2002.
The first India-ASEAN Business Summit was held at New Delhi in October 2002. The then Prime Minister A.B. Vajpayee addressed this meet and since then this business summit has become an annual feature before the India-ASEAN Summits, as a forum for networking and exchange of business experiences between policy makers and business leaders from ASEAN and India.
Four India-ASEAN Summits, first in 2002 at Phnom Penh (Cambodia), second in 2003 at Bali (Indonesia), third in 2004 at Vientiane (Laos) and the fourth in 2005 at Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), have taken place till date.
The following agreements have been entered into with ASEAN:
Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Cooperation (for establishing a FTA in a time frame of 10 years) was concluded in Bali in 2003.
An ASEAN-India Joint Declaration for Cooperation to Combat International Terrorism has been adopted.
India has acceded to the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC) in 2003, on which ASEAN was formed initially (in 1967).
Agreement on "India-ASEAN Partnership for Peace, Progress and Shared Prosperity" was signed at the 3rd ASEAN-India Summit in Nov 2004.
Setting up of Entrepreneurship Development Centres in ASEAN member states – Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam. (The one in Laos is already functional)
The following proposals were announced by the Prime Minister at the 4th ASEAN-India Summit:
Setting up centres for English Language Training (ELT) in Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam.
Setting up a tele-medicine and tele-education network for Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos and Vietnam.
Organising special training courses for diplomats from ASEAN countries.
Organising an India-ASEAN Technology Summit in 2006.
Organising education fairs and road shows in ASEAN countries.
Conducting an India-ASEAN IT Ministerial and Industry Forum in 2006.
The ASEAN region has an abundance of natural resources and significant technological skills. These provide a natural base for the integration between ASEAN and India in both trade and investment. The present level of bilateral trade with ASEAN of nearly US $ 18 billion is reportedly increasing by about 25 % per year. India hopes to reach the level of US $ 30 billion by 2007. India is also improving its relations with the help of other policy decisions like offers of lines of credit, better connectivity through air (open skies policy), rail and road links.
Thailand. The first Framework Agreement for a bilateral FTA (with an ASEAN nation) was signed with Thailand in October 2003. Under this agreement, the commencement of FTA in Services and Investments will be in 2006 and in Goods from 2010. Some Memorandums of Understanding were also signed in October 2003, on tourism, agriculture and cooperation in bio-technology. A Joint Working Group is also in place for information and intelligence sharing on terrorism.
Malaysia. Indiais Malaysia's largest trading partner among countries in the south, excluding China and the ASEAN, with the bilateral trade valued at US $ 4.29 billion in 2004. Indian public sector undertakings such as BHEL and IRCON have undertaken and successfully completed a number of projects in Malaysia. There are 57 Indian joint ventures in Malaysia in the fields of palm oil refining, power, railways, civil construction, training and information technology.
During the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh in December 2004, India and Malaysia agreed to initiate a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA). 12 agreement/MOUs were also signed covering wide ranging cooperation in satellite technology, biotechnology, information technology, infrastructure and education.
Indonesia. During the visit of the Indonesian President, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, to India in November 2005, Indonesia and India agreed to establish a "strategic partnership" based on shared values and commitment to democracy and aimed at broad based development of relations in the political, security, economic, commercial, cultural and science and technology fields. Three MOUs were signed- one on marine and fisheries cooperation, one on establishment of Joint Study Group for CECA and one on training cooperation for training of diplomats.
India has many joint ventures in Indonesia since the 1970s. The bilateral trade currently at around US $ 4 billion will be tripled to US $ 15 billion in the next five years. Indonesia was insistent on the inclusion of India into East Asia Summit and had supported India at the other forums like WTO and OIC (Oil Importing Countries).
Myanmar. Myanmar is the only ASEAN country with which India shares both land and maritime boundaries. Hence Myanmar has to be accorded a special position in its foreign policy, especially in view of India's strategic and security concerns. Consequent to visit of Senior General Than Shwe, Chairman SPDC,to India in 2004, the bilateral relations are at an all time high.
India has extended a number of general and project-specific credit lines to Myanmar in the last few years. A number of agreements and MOUs, including the Tripartite Maritime Agreement between India, Myanmar and Thailand, the Border Trade Agreement and an agreement on Cooperation between Civilian Border Authorities, have been signed. Indian companies are involved in oil and gas exploration in Myanmar. A feasibility study has been undertaken for a rail link between India and Myanmar.
India had upgraded the 160 km long Tamu-Kalewa-Kalemyo highway in 2001 and will be maintaining it for the next six years. There is an ongoing project for construction of a trilateral highway from Moreh in India to Mae Sot in Thailand to Bagan in Myanmar, the progress of which is being reviewed regularly by the foreign ministers of the three nations. True to Myanamar's assurances, it has been launching operations against the Indian rebel groups such as NSCN (K) camping in its soil.
Singapore. Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) between India and Singapore was signed on 29 June 2005 during the visit of Singapore Prime Minister to India. This agreement which came into effect on 01 August 2005, includes a bilateral investment promotion treaty, a double taxation avoidance agreement and an air services agreement in addition to an FTA. It may be recalled that it was Singapore that paved the way of India's association with ARF. Lee had also supported India's bid for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council. Singapore along with Indonesia had also supported India's entry in to the East Asian Summit.
Cambodia, Laos and Vietnam
These three economically under developed countries of this region, in comparison to the rest of ASEAN, have enough scope and opportunity for India to extend its influence and reap the benefits.
Since 1981, when India recognized the Hang Samrin regime, India had cordial relations with Cambodia. India has entered into a number of bilateral treaties and agreements for cooperation in the fields of trade, science & technology, agriculture, tourism, air services and visa exemption. India has some major projects in the areas of education, entrepreneurship development and information technology. India has helped Cambodia in a big way through the ITEC programme.
India and Laos have signed a number of agreements and MOUs in the fields of culture, cooperation in defense, cooperation in science & technology, agricultural cooperation, drugs and illicit trafficking, and exemption of visas for diplomats and officials. India has also set up and Entrepreneurial Development Centre in Laos and will be setting up an Information Technology Centre shortly.
India has a number of bilateral treaties and agreements with Vietnam in the areas of Consular relations, Avoidance of Double Taxation, Narcotics, Science & Technology and Culture. Since 1976, India has extended 14 lines of credit amounting to Rupees 3,610 million to Vietnam. Another credit line of US $ 27 million to Vietnam was signed in August 2004 between Exim Bank of India and Ministry of Finance, Vietnam. India is also helping Vietnam in setting up an Advanced Resource Centre in IT in Hanoi and HRD in the field of IT in six educational institutions in Vietnam.
India has also proposed in the 4th India-ASEAN Summit at Kuala Lumpur in 2005 to set up Centers for English Language Training, tele-medicine and tele-education centers in these three states.
The China Factor: India getting preference over China
China is virtually dominating this region. By the ASEAN-China Accord entered into in November 2004 (during the 10th ASEAN Summit in Vientiane), the world's biggest free trade area has been created removing all tariffs. The tariff cuts that began in 2005 will be completed by 2010 drawing the ASEAN's combined economies of US $ 1 trillion closer to China's US $ 1.4 trillion.
In the Cold war era, India perceived China as dangerous country because of its high military expenditure and ambitious plans in this field. But now the image of China has changed and now is seen as an economic powerhouse. To gain confidence and to build trust among the Asian countries Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, said in a speech during the last ASEAN Summit that "China will continue to seek peace and development through cooperation and will strive to achieve development that will bring about peace, openness, cooperation and harmony as well as benefit to itself and other countries".
Despite the remarks of the Chinese Premier some analysts are of the opinion that China preferred a smaller Asian grouping (without U.S., India, Australia and New Zealand) that can integrate quickly on the economic front and which China can influence more significantly. Perhaps it is this increasing influence of China and its motives that had prompted countries like Singapore and Indonesia to cooperate with India, Australia and New Zealand into the EAS.
Hence India must be aware that it has not been invited to EAS because of its rising economic potential alone but more as a balancing force to offset the China factor. Although it is being said that India and China are not rivals and they can complement rather than compete in the EAS.
Conclusion
Advantages of the policy: Implications for India’s Northeast Region
* 1991 was a turning point in India's economic relations due to its new Look east policy. Before 1990 India's main focus was on the Soviet Union because of which ties with the other major Asian powers like China and Japan were not strong. India's inward-looking orientation disconnected it from the neighborhood to the East, kept it apart from the economic growth of East Asia. By the turn of the 1990s, India had totally marginalized itself. The first phase of the Look East policy launched by the Narasimha Rao Government in the early 1990s focused on renewing contact with a region that India had drifted away from.
* The Look-East policy has been given a significant thrust since the beginning of this century and the results achieved are evident as mentioned. Now India has entered into the phase two of this policy.The second phase in India's Look East policy has a new dimension — the development of India's remote northeast.India's search for a new economic relationship with South East Asia is no longer driven by considerations of globalization, but to facilitate development of the Northeast by increasing its connectivity to the outside world. Instead of trying to isolate the Northeast from external influences, as it had done in the past, New Delhi is now recognizing the importance of opening it up for commercial linkages with South East Asia.
* Increased economic integration with Asia has helped India because the core competencies of these economies are different. So India can import the goods from other countries which can be produced by other countries at a lower cost then India. India can export those goods for which India has a competitive advantage. This arrangement is mutually beneficiation for India and East Asia countries .Due to this there is a Substantial potential of Asian Economic Integration in helping Asia resume a high growth path.
East Asia's Strengths India's Strengths
1) Electronic equipment Computer Software
2) Heavy engineering Light engineering and pharmaceuticals
3) Product development and marketing Process development
4) Underutilized capacity in construction Huge potential demand
* Look east policy has helped India in strengthening its place in the global economy and gets a better deal in its interactions outside the region. America and European countries had entered into a lot of different mutual agreement which has further increased their reputation and bargaining power. India was in danger of isolation in the global economy. India was not getting its due importance. But due to its Look east policy India economy is getting integrated with the Asian economy, so India gets support from Asian countries which have increased India's importance at global level.
Short comings in the policy
* The Look East policy did not find Japan on its radar and failed to improve India's economic ties with it. Trade with Japan actually declined dramatically dropping its share to one-third of its level of 7 per cent in 1993. One of the causes, of course, was the fact that the Japanese economy was stagnate during this period. But still it is difficult to explain the reason behind this dramatic drop. This was the biggest failure of Look east policy. Failure to involve Japan and a build economic relationship with it also resulted in closing the doors on Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI).
India missed out on Japanese FDI in the in the early 1990's because of its policies that discouraged FDI. Following the reforms, however, the dedicated policy instruments of Look East policy should have succeeded in attracting Japanese FDI to India but that did not happen. During 1993-2003, Japan's global FDI averaged at $ 50 billion a year, of which India received $ 220 million a year or less than one-fourth of 1 per cent! Even at the regional level, India received just 2 per cent of Japanese FDI. (China's share was 10 times higher at 22 per cent).But now the situation is getting better and trade with Japan is increasing.
* India has entered into a number of pacts, agreements and FTAs but its record for implementation of such accords has been poor as can be seen from the follow up of the Indo-Thai FTA and CECA with Singapore.
The reason for poor implementation of the pacts, agreements and FTAs –
#The Indian industry's doubts about its competitive efficiency.
# Indian industry does not want competition at home.
# Indian industry is scared of cheaper exports to India from these countries.
India should go ahead with proper implementation of the pacts, agreements and FTAs without bothering about the aforementioned factors. The Indian industry will ensure that India will always gain from these arrangements.
Suggested future framework
·The rise of China's economic potential and the resultant influence on this region should not deter India, as the region is looking for an alternative in India because of its fair practices and peace loving nature. India is preferred over China by many countries because India is a democratic country. However India has to set its house in order and go ahead with its economic reforms, liberalization process and infrastructure development to gain the confidence of this region, which at present is not all that high. Economic reforms and liberalization process is being negatively affected by the left parties which is supporting the government.
·India should tailor the bilateral relations with every country in different ways to suit the requirements of that particular country and that of India.
·ASEAN and EAS hold great promise for India. Adequate interaction with these groupings will result in better integration with this region and facilitate India economic development. Indian businesses which are looking to go global will get huge markets in other countries. They will be able to export their goods and get a market share because of low tariffs due to the pacts, agreements and FTAs. Although foreign companies will also get this advantage but Indian companies will be able to compete with these because of their competitiveness.
·CMI and emerging FTAs / RTAs between Asian countries provide foundations for a broader and more ambitious initiative to take the existing India-ASEAN relationship to a higher level, like an Asian Economic Community, which constitutes ASEAN, China, Japan, Korea and India as member countries. Such a community would be roughly the size of the European Union in terms of income, and bigger than NAFTA in terms of trade. It would account for half the world's population and it would hold foreign exchange reserves exceeding those of the EU and NAFTA put together. This can give a greater push to Indian growth.
Impact and Implications of recent steps on Northeast India:
With the signing of free trade agreement with 10-member ASEAN countries in mid-August 2009 by India, subsequent to its FTA with BIMSTEC nations comprising Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Myanmar, Nepal and Bhutan together with the prospect of similar agreement with South Korea, the possibility of enlarged trade and industrialisation of north-eastern region, the gate-way to India, is certainly the brightened up. Assam being the biggest State and potentially the biggest trade partner in the upcoming hub in the region, vested with vast deposits of natural resources, obviously, has an added reason to be happy.
This is a crucial step forward to look-east policy and would achieve an increase of at least $ 10 billion worth of trade in the first year itself after the agreement comes into force in January, 2010.
Also, several products like agricultural commodities, auto components, textiles, plastics, chemicals, etc have been safeguarded through India’s negative list on which there will be no tariff reduction. This apart, the lobbying from domestic industry had led to the exclusion of as many as 489 items from the list of tariff concessions and 590 items from the list of tariff elimination to address sensitivities in agriculture, crude and refined palm oil, coffee, tea, pepper, etc on which the import duties will also be lowered to around 40-45 per cent from almost 200 per cent by 2019.
The FTA with ASEAN would be bringing down tariffs on electronics, chemicals, machinery and textile goods while the duty-free imports and exports ranging from steel to sugar and tobacco would increase to 4000 products over a period of eight years. Though, till now, there is no significant presence of industries coming into the region, the recent FTA agreements and further approach to look-east policy with Myanmar suggesting an alternative route to South-east Asian market through the “Rangoon Road” instead of controversial Stilwell road appear to have now attracted a number prospective investors eyeing on north-eastern region. It is not only that Bangladeshhas decided to improve its infrastructure in order to enhance its trade with this region but also the much-touted Indo-Myanmar border trade is geared up with inclusion of 18 new items in the list of tradable products. This apart, a leading company from Thailand has evinced a keen interest in setting up of a manufacturing plant in the North-East with an investment of nearly Rs 45 crore to generate telecom services and also several Thai companies expressed their keen interest to invest in agriculture and infrastructure sectors. It is only in the first week of September that the Federation of Industry and Commerce of North Eastern Region signed memorandum of understanding with Brazil and Turkey for exporting tea, handloom, handicraft products and spices against investment from these countries in the region’s hydropower sector.
India-ASEAN trade has risen from around $7 billion in 2000-01 to $39 billion in 2007-08. With tariffs rationalised, it is expected to balloon many times over. Plus, Indian exporters will gain access to the $1.1 trillion ASEAN market. Fears about influx of foreign goods flattening domestic players are unfounded if India's experience with cheap Chinese imports is anything to go by. If anything, trade regularisation via FTAs creates an institutional framework that spells out the rules of the game. There's also the bigger picture. Asia's globally recognised economic clout in the 21st century would be reinforced if Asian nations did business with each other on the basis of mutual synergies.
The region has however, for long been waiting to see the results of such prospects.
